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USA vs Iran

I'm beginning to have some bad feelings about the Iran/Syria/US/Israel situations.

Whilst I'm still convinced that the US will not launch an 'invasion' on Iran (or Syria) I am beginning to feel it's getting increasingly likely that they will launch 'pre-emptive' strikes against Iranian nuclear and military facilities.

Iran is obviously on high alert and a bit tense at present (just reading about recent 'friendly-fire' instances they've had there in the last week or so seems to confirm this) and with the new agreement between Iran and Syria saying they'll help defend the other it looks like things are moving up a notch from simmering.

Time will tell, and I hope I'm wrong for not only the countries involved but for everyone else's sake, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see the first missiles fired by the end of summer.

Comments

( 6 comments — Leave a comment )
cookwitch
Feb. 16th, 2005 03:49 pm (UTC)
Cheerful! I know what you mean thugh. Heaven forfend that anyone should have nuclear weapons apart from the USA. I'm amazed they haven't had a go at France yet. They seem to be avoiding Korea too.
angusabranson
Feb. 16th, 2005 04:28 pm (UTC)
According to international law I believe the only countries 'legally' able to possess nuclear weapons and those countries which are the permanent members of the UN Security Council (US, Russia, China, UK, France and Germany).

Thus if the world was really worried about nuclear arms countries such as India, Pakistan and Israel should have been embargoed up for years and should have been well and truly invaded and had 'targetted' strikes upon them. North Korea is a bigger problem than Iran. At least Iran is reasonably moderate, holds elections, and is slowly reforming sectors of its institutions. North Korea on the other hand is a dictatorship whose leader seems to have completely no grasp on reality.

The 'nuclear' issue regarding Iran is just helping the States. The current administration would like to 'deal' with Iran in anycase and having a 'nuclear' threat they can play around with just helps them win support at home and gives allied governments a spin they can chorus.

I do believe thay Iran has a lot more friends than Iraq did. There are a lot of countries who work with Iran - the EU has a number of ties with them for a start and Japan helped finance and build Tehran's Underground network a few years ago. Also Iran on one hand poses a lot less of a 'threat' than Saddam 'was' and on the other is a 'bigger' threat because their military and citizens have not been the targets of over a decade worth of sanctions so could (and would) give any invading forces a serious problem.

If the US attacks Iran it will just serve to further fuel anti-western hatred in many quarters (and anti-American sentiment worldwide including in 'allied' countries) and also entrench Irans more fundamentalist and extreme politicians and religious-leaders in power and support over the more liberal ones which are starting to have real influence over there.
cookwitch
Feb. 16th, 2005 04:32 pm (UTC)
I agree with all you say to be honest.I'm not anti-American per se, but I AM anti Bush and his administration. Bill Clinton may have been a fool in his personal life but he wasn't a danger like this lot.
corone
Feb. 16th, 2005 05:14 pm (UTC)
We can only hope that Bush will run out of money for any more wars,
given that the last few are bringing America closer to bankruptcy.
bridiep
Feb. 16th, 2005 07:38 pm (UTC)
My current fear is civil war in Israel - Sharon is calling for the army to 'assist' settlers to leave the Gaza Strip, but many are saying they will refuse. Seems like a classic situation arising, where a faction of civilians have some of the army on their side in contravention of government policy. Light blue touch paper and stand well back...:(
angusabranson
Feb. 16th, 2005 07:57 pm (UTC)
I agree about the current state of affairs in Israel. The government there is considering taking hardliners into custody at present and possibly court marshalling anyone in the forces who refuses to help (with some hardline rabbi's calling upon the military to disobey their orders).

It's certainly not a good situation and can only serve to destabilise the area further.
( 6 comments — Leave a comment )

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