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Eastern European Conflict

So, who else reckons we could see a little outbreak of conflict between Russia and Poland in the next few years. Either over Belarus or some other cause which deteriorates there relationship even further than it's fall this year?

I've been keeping an eye on the developments there and it does sound distrubing. Especially as there have been upsurges of anti-Polish/Russian activities in the respective countries and with the mugging of a Russian diplomats kids in Poland by 15-anti-Russian Polish youths and now two attacks on Polish diplomats in Moscow that have left both hospitalised things don't seem to be on the mend.

Any conflict would be even more interesting as Poland is now part of the EU and NATO whereas Russia is not.

Comments

( 8 comments — Leave a comment )
davywavy
Aug. 11th, 2005 02:31 pm (UTC)
Considering the ongoing success of the Russian Military in Chechnya, I really don't think NATO has anything to fear from them.
jonnynexus
Aug. 11th, 2005 02:53 pm (UTC)
They've got nukes. Any conflict with someone who's packing megatonnage is never going to be good.

Anyhow, given that we're in a similar sort of quagmire in Iraq, I think it's reasonable to say that this kind of guerilla conflict doesn't really give an indication as to your prowess in a conventional war.
pond823
Aug. 11th, 2005 03:35 pm (UTC)
Yup and all you need is one Polish attack on Russians civilians and the Russians can claim they are fighting the war on terror.
jonnynexus
Aug. 11th, 2005 02:55 pm (UTC)
Yeah, I was interested to read the stuff today about the problems with the Polish minority in the territories to the east of Poland that were Polish before the war.

But I think that given that Poland was physically moved westward after WWII, and they got a whole big chunk of Germany (so for the first time ever they were a square shaped country with defendible frontiers) I don't think they can expect the other territories back).
angusabranson
Aug. 11th, 2005 03:07 pm (UTC)
They can 'always' expect the other territories back. Germany was mumbling about it's borders a few years ago as well I seem to recall...
jonnynexus
Aug. 11th, 2005 03:10 pm (UTC)
Yeah, wasn't there some contraversy when someone high up (Kohl?) used the phrase "Middle Germany" to refer to East Germany, which is apparently a coded way the hardliners use to indicate that they should get the Polish territories back. (i.e. they describe East Germany as "Middle Germany" and the now Polish territory as "East Germany").

Aside from anything else, I believe the former Polish territories to the East are now split between three countries (Lithuania, Belorus and the Ukraine) and I think the Lithuanian capital, Vilnus, was in Poland before WWII. So trying to get them back would upset a lot of people as well as weakening their position as regards Germany.
exmoor_cat
Aug. 11th, 2005 03:23 pm (UTC)
Vilnius was only in Poland proper fr the Post-WW1 set-up, prior to that it has always been fiercely Lithuanian. Lovely city too, I especially enjoyed their beer and some decent restaurants. The women are gorgeous too.
oldson
Aug. 12th, 2005 01:53 pm (UTC)
Interesting is perhaps not the word I would use there, no matter how many pieces it's in, no-one in their right mind should be thinking about messing with the great bear. The point would be who starts it, if Russia storms in, then the EU may well respond. If it's poland who provokes something, there's every chance that the EU will relegate its own response as far back as possible. After all, take a look at iraq, technically britain is part of the eu, but I haven't seen any forthcoming support for the activities that we're undertaking over there presently. At the end of the day, the EU is an interesting idea, all countries working together and all that, but it's very often stymied in the struggle for more power. I fear that if poland were to initiate anything, they would be very much left out in the cold (no pun intended.

That said, I can't see any reason why russia would escalate anything to a conflict level, poland simply isn't large enough to warrant the attention.
( 8 comments — Leave a comment )

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