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UK Politics

There is a very good reason why none of the current crop of Cabinet Ministers will come out and call for a leadership election against Gordon Brown.

It's because the next election is pretty much unwinnable for Labour regardles sof who is in charge. It's better to have Gordon as the sacrificial lamb and then mount a challenge to become Leader of the Opposition once the Conservatives are in power and build your base from there.

If a new leader was to replace Brown now, then an election would be almost unavoidable as they would be the second Prime Minister to hold the job without a public vote (Brown hasn't fought a General Election as PM yet as he took over when Blair stepped down *after* the last election). Plus regardless who it is they'd be fighting a loosing cause. Sure, they might be able to build a few bridges but not enough to keep them residing in #10 Downing Street.

To be blunt, if someone took over now I doubt they'd last too long after loosing the Election. So who, out of the serious and viable contenders, is going to want it now? The best thing any of them can do is consolidate their places and start building alliances so after the next Election they can go for the top job.

Thus Gordon Brown will remain as PM. Not because he's doing a good job and has party and cabinet support but because no one else wants the job right now as it's poisoned. The best thing Brown could do that would send his detractors and plotters within his party off-balance would be to resign now. Then someone has to step forward - and risk getting tarnished by loosing the next election. Of course if they win then they're the golden child and those that held back waiting to step in post-Election loss are screwed.

Comments

spangle_kitten
Sep. 15th, 2008 01:57 pm (UTC)
They still have just under 2 years to sort things out - I'm not sure if that's long enough, but if the brunt of the economic downturn has passed by then I guess there's a possibility they could pull it off.

But as you say, I can't see them being able to change leader again without an election!

The best they can really do is just to try and weather this storm, and possibly have a new leader shortly before the next election, who can then go on a US presidential style tour saying how great they are, with lots of press coverage before they were confirmed as leader about how great they are.

But as is I am totally unsure who to vote for. I have always voted Lib Dem traditionally, (given the consituancy I've voted in have been Bedford - one of the safest Tory seats going so it didn't really matter - and Weston Super Mare (Lib Dem hotspot)) but now am unsure whether to vote for Labour tactfully to stop the Tories or actually to vote for the Tories. I know such a thought makes me sick to the very core and goes against every value I have*...but my dad pointed out that the Tories would never have dared to do what Brown did with the 10p tax band as it's so blatently anti-working class, and it seems that Labour are becoming more right wing than that traditional right wing party. So it's a lesser of 2 evils sort of thing.

* Says the gal who'd skive off school to go on May Day marches!
hsb
Sep. 15th, 2008 10:36 pm (UTC)
Much of what Labour have done, the Tories would never have dared to do, from forcing through performance-related pay for the teachers during their honeymoon period on.

I felt quite sorry for the Tories in the immediate aftermath of 1997, actually. Obviously, they needed to go, but everything Labour did for months appeared to be taken from Tory plans, whims or impossible dreams, and so they couldn't argue against it. Plus, only Rory Bremner and the Long Johns took the change in stride and actually took the piss out of the new lot, so they were *still* the butt of a lot of jokes.

The traditional right wing/left wing divide is now completely broken. The only party proposing tax cuts is the Lib Dems, Labour is refusing to help the poor, and the Tories have based practically their entire policy on 'being green'.

Clearly, the answer is to follow whoever it was who said the answer was always to vote the bastards out.

H

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